15 July 2013

Mining jobs boom definitely over: DEEWR

In May this year, Australian Jobs 2013 was released. It’s the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations’ most recent edition of their comprehensive annual Australian labour market update.
 
The most significant news story amongst the welter of statistics was that the mining jobs book is over, according to DEEWR.
 
In the five years between November 2007 and November 2012, the Australian mining sector almost doubled its workforce, creating nearly 131,000 jobs. The next five years are likely to be in stark contrast with DEEWR predicting total mining job growth between November 2012 and November 2017 to be a tiny 11,500 jobs, or 4.3%.
 
There’s plenty of other interesting and useful data dished up by DEEWR and as is the case every year, I provide a list of various facts that recruiters might be interested in (all figures quoted are as at February 2013 unless otherwise stated).

1. The average annual growth rate of new jobs over the past twenty years is 2.2% (the March 2012 – February 2013 period was well below that annual average at 1.7%).

2. The area with the greatest 5 year job growth (Dec 2007 – Nov 2012) was Perth (+16.5%) followed by regional WA (13.8%), NT (13.3%) and Melbourne (9.9%). The lowest 5 year job growth occurred in Hobart (+2.2%), followed by Regional Tas (+3.1%) and then Regional SA (+5.2%).

3. The fastest growing industries over the past 5 years in each state were (total employment growth rate is in brackets):

NSW
Information, Media & Telecommunication
+23.7%
VIC
Health Care and Social Assistance
+29.2%
QLD
Mining
+89.3%
SA
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
+44.2%
WA
Mining
+106.8%
TAS
Mining*
+98.2%
NT
Mining
+74.3%
ACT
Administrative & Support services
+37.8%
*Mining benefited from a very low 2007 base (ie 2,300).
By raw numbers mining is Tasmania’s 3rd lowest employing industry (out of 19 industries)

4. Employment fell in six industries over the five years to November 2012. These were:

Manufacturing
-92,000
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
-26,400
Other Services
-20,600
Retail Trade
-20,000
Information Media and Telecommunications
-4,900
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
-1,800

5. Of the six states, Victoria has the most capital city-concentrated workforce (73.5% of the state’s workforce located in Melbourne) just shading WA (73.4% in Perth) and SA (72.9% in Adelaide).

6. The largest employing industries (as at Nov 2012) in Australia are:
 
Health Care & Social Assistance
1.369 m jobs, 37% in Regional Aus
Retail trade
1.220 m, 38% in Regional Aus
Construction
995,000, 40% in Regional Aus
Manufacturing
967,000, 36% in Regional Aus
 
7. The industries with the fastest five year (Nov 2007 - Nov 2012) total job growth in Australia were:
 
Mining
+94.3%
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
+34.6%
Health Care & Social Assistance
+24.6%
Education and Training
+13.7%
 
8. By industry, the most new jobs in the next 5 years (Nov 2012 – Nov 2017) are projected to be created in:
 
Health Care & Social Assistance
177,800
Retail Trade
109,100
Construction
100,200
Accommodation & food services
66,899

9. Mining gains plenty of publicity due to the wages, conditions and skills shortages but it only employs 2.3% of Australia's workforce (269,700 people), which has it 16th out of 19 sectors in terms of workforce size. It is projected to grow its workforce on 4.3% in the next 5 years, a dramatic fall from the 94.3% growth of the past 5 years.

10. The most common occupations in each industry are as follows
 
Accommodation and Food Services:
Waiters
 
14% of the industry
Admin & Support Services:
Commercial Cleaners
 
20%
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing:
Livestock Farmers
 
22%
Arts & Recreation Services:
Sports Coaches
 
8%
Construction:
Carpenters and Joiners
 
10%
Education & Training:
Primary School Teachers
 
17%
Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste:
Electricians
 
7%
Financial & Insurance services:
Bank Workers
 
13%
Health Care & Social Assistance:
Registered Nurses
 
17%
Information Media and Telecommunications:
Journalists/writers
 
8%
Manufacturing:
Structural Steel and Welding Trade Workers
 
5%
Mining:
Drillers, Miners and Shot Firers
 
16%
Other Services:
Hairdressers
 
15%
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services:
Accountants
 
9%
Public Administration and safety:
Police
 
9%
Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services:
Real Estate Agents
 
35%
Retail Trade:
General Sales Assistants
 
31%
Transport, Postal and Warehousing:
Truck Drivers
 
17%
Wholesale Trade:
Sales Reps
 
8%
 
11. The five most common job categories in Australia (with total employment in brackets) are:
 
General Sales Assistants
511,000
Registered Nurses
241,300
Retail Managers
227,000
General Clerks
216,100
Receptionists
190,000
 
12. The strongest projected employment growth by occupational group in the 5 years to November 2017 is predicted to be for:
 
Information Professionals (up by 16.0%), although employment of Librarians is expected to fall.
 
Health Diagnostic and Therapy Professionals (14.2%), due to strong growth for a number of occupations, including Dieticians and Physiotherapists.
 
Carers and Aides (13.6%), mainly Care Workers, Special, and Carers, Aged and Disabled and Dental Assistants.
 
Health and Welfare Support Workers (13.4%), with strong growth for a number of occupations, including Ambulance Officers and Paramedics, and Massage Therapists.
 
Corporate Managers (12.4%), especially for Managers, Corporate Services and Managers, Advertising and Sales.

As is consistent with past editions of Australian Jobs, recruiters aren't significant enough to have their own job category in the nine pages devoted to rating the ‘future prospects' of hundreds of individual occupation job categories.
 
Meatboners, slicers and slaughters (9,000 current jobs, future job openings: low), betting clerks (2,400 current jobs, future job openings: low) and upholsterers (4,500 current jobs, future job openings: low) can all be comforted in the knowledge that DEEWR regards them as a distinct job category unlike recruiters (estimate 18,000 currently employed), apparently.
 
Maybe in 2014?

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