15 March 2016

More teachers and more deaths: 2020 employment projections

Each year in Australia, the Department of Employment produces employment projections by industry, occupation and region for the upcoming five years, the latest being the five years to November 2020. These projections are produced using detailed data from the ABS Labour Force Survey.

In the 2016 update released last Friday, total employment is predicted to increase by 989,700 (or 8.3%) over the five years to November 2020. Over that time period the DoE projects that employment will increase in 16 of the 19 broad industries, with declines in employment projected for Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Mining and Manufacturing.

Here is a brief summary of the most recent DoE projections: 
  1. #1 growth industry continues to be Health Care and Social Assistance: HCSA is projected to make the largest contribution to employment growth (increasing by 250,200). Factors contributing to this strong projected growth include the implementation of the National Disability Insurance Scheme, Australia's ageing population, and increasing demand for childcare and home based care services. Employment growth in this industry is likely to favour part-time and female workers.
     
  2. #2 growth industry: Professional, Scientific and Technical Services is projected to increase total employment by 151,200 (or 14.8%) over the five years to November 2020. Although the passing of the resources boom is expected to dampen employment growth in the Architectural, Engineering and Technical Services sector, which has increased by 29.1% over the past five years to 308,100, strong housing construction activity and infrastructure investment and a positive contribution from the lower Australian dollar are expected to enable the sector to increase employment by 60,100 (or 19.5%) over the five years to November 2020.
     
  3. Historically low interest rates and lower AUD$ helps tourism: Retail Trade (up by 106,000 or 8.4%) and Accommodation and Food Services (up by 98,800 or 12.0%) will both benefit from these trends over the next five years. The Cafes, Restaurants and Takeaway Food Services sub-sector is expected to lead the way in employment growth creating 84,300 jobs (or up 14.9%). In Retail Trade, employment growth is expected to be particularly strong in the Hardware, Building and Garden Supplies Retailing sector over the five years to November 2020 (up by 14,300 or 15.6%).
     
  4. Construction industry bounces back from mining slowdown: Construction industry employment is projected to grow by 87,000 (or 8.3%) over the five years to November 2020. Following several years of subdued growth, employment in Construction has increased by 69,400 (or 7.1%) over the past three years, against the backdrop of a strong rise in residential building construction and historically low interest rates, both of which are likely to continue to support growth in the industry into the period ahead.
     
  5. Motor Vehicle manufacturing shutdown leads Manufacturing jobs decline: Employment in the industry projected to decline by 45,700 (or 5.3%) over the five years to November 2020. This decline is expected to be primarily driven by a projected fall of 27,500 jobs (or 58.3%) in Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Part Manufacturing, following the announced plant closures by Ford, Holden and Toyota.
     
  6. Mining jobs decline set to continue: The fall is projected to be 31,900 jobs (or 14.1%) over the five years to November 2020. After recording extremely strong employment growth over much of the past decade, employment in the industry has declined by 45,900 (or 16.9%) over the past two years, driven by weakening growth in demand from China and cost cutting by firms in response to a fall in the price of commodities.
     
  7. The Internet is not killing real estate agencies: The Property Operators and Real Estate Services sub-sector is predicted to grow by 23,400 jobs (or 13.5%) over the five years to November, 2020.
     
  8. A lot more teachers required: The Education and Training sector will exceed 1 million employed for the first time. The largest growth in actual jobs will come in the School Education sub-sector (49,100 extra jobs) while the highest percentage growth will come in the Adult, Community and Other Education sub-sector (up 18.8% or 30,700 jobs).
     
  9. More deaths good for jobs: The Funeral, Crematorium and Cemetery Services sub-sector is expected to increase total employment by 700 jobs (or 16.3%) in the next five years.

Share of projected employment growth, by industry* - five years to November 2020


* 'Other' consists of Administrative and Support Services; Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services; Other Services; Arts and Recreation Services; Information Media and Telecommunications; Wholesale Trade and Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing; Mining and Manufacturing are excluded from the chart as they are not projected to grow over the five years to November 2020.
 
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